What’s next for Kristi Noem? 2026 Senate chatter grows after DHS exit

President Donald Trump cut short Kristi Noem’s tenure at the Department of Homeland Security after weeks of internal turmoil. Now headed to a new envoy post, the onetime conservative star faces a pressing question: Can she stage a political comeback?

Noem was fired as the nation’s immigration chief after a turbulent stretch marked by internal clashes and two contentious congressional hearings where even some Republicans pressed her over leadership missteps. Trump announced on Truth Social that Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., will replace her effective March 31, while Noem shifts to a newly created envoy role the president says he’ll detail this weekend.

An administration source told Fox News "it was time" to move on from Noem, citing internal feuding, staff mismanagement and controversies — including a $200 million ad campaign and fallout in Minnesota — that "overshadowed" Trump’s immigration agenda.

"Kristi’s drama sadly overshadowed and distracted from the Administration’s extremely popular immigration agenda, which will continue full force," the source said. 

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Trump said Noem will be named "Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas," a newly created role he described as part of a broader Western Hemisphere security initiative. The White House has not yet detailed the scope of the position.

The reassignment comes as speculation grows in South Dakota over whether Noem could mount a primary challenge against Sen. Mike Rounds in 2026 — a move that would test whether her standing with Trump and GOP voters has truly eroded. 

Rounds, who is seeking a third term, secured Trump’s "complete and total endorsement" last year and is backed by Senate Republican leadership — a formidable barrier to any challenger. "He will never let you down," Trump wrote in his endorsement, calling Rounds an "America First Patriot."

Fox News Digital reached out to Rounds' office for comment.

Noem would enter any race with statewide name recognition and a deep political network, having served eight years in Congress before winning two terms as governor.

But some Republican operatives question whether her abrupt exit from DHS weakened her standing within Trump’s inner circle at a critical political moment. One GOP strategist involved in Senate races, who acknowledged that Noem was once a MAGA rock star, described a potential Senate bid at this time as a "suicide mission."

The clock is already ticking. South Dakota’s filing deadline is March 31 at 5 p.m. CT, and candidates must gather roughly 2,200 petition signatures in just over three weeks to qualify for a June 2 primary. 

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The speculation has drawn national attention. The Atlantic reported that pollsters in South Dakota were surveying a potential Rounds-Noem matchup, with one Republican source telling the magazine that the senator would "handily win" if challenged.

Rapid City’s ABC affiliate reported on the rumors of Noem's ambitions in February, saying Republicans in her home state are watching to see if she would challenge Rounds.

Still, Noem has a fair share of powerful allies back home. Gov. Larry Rhoden, Noem’s successor in Pierre, commented Thursday that "Kristi is a dear friend and the toughest person I know."

"When she shut down the border in record time, others were shocked, but I wasn’t. I knew what she was capable of."

"She’ll deliver in her next role just as capably. I thank her for everything she’s done to keep South Dakota — and all America — strong, safe, and free," Rhoden said.

As governor, Rhoden worked with Noem’s DHS to make South Dakota one of the first states to enter a 287(g) agreement allowing state-level cooperation with ICE. Under the arrangement, the South Dakota Highway Patrol has been authorized to assist with immigration enforcement, and National Guard personnel have supported administrative functions — a record that could bolster her standing with conservative primary voters as speculation about her next move intensifies.

Fox News’ Peter Doocy contributed to this report.