Republicans and Democrats to duke it out for North Carolina Senate seat

Democrats just scored a massive new pickup opportunity in North Carolina. Republicans are determined not to let them have it.

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ abrupt retirement announcement Sunday has blown the door open for potential juggernaut candidates on both sides of the aisle. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper plans to make a decision this summer on whether he’ll mount a bid, according to a person close to him and granted anonymity to disclose private conversations. Democrats widely believe the popular former governor would give the party its best chance of winning the competitive seat. Meanwhile, former Rep. Wiley Nickel is already running.

The GOP side could become a family affair for Donald Trump after he called for Tillis’ ouster for voting against the megabill. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law and past co-chair of the Republican National Committee, is “taking a strong look” at the race and will have the family’s support if she chooses to run, according to a person close to the Trumps and granted anonymity to speak candidly about their internal discussions. Another person said Trump was still likely to meet with all the GOP candidates.

The White House also considers RNC Chair Michael Whatley, a former North Carolina GOP chair, a strong candidate, per a Republican operative granted anonymity to describe internal thinking. And some in Trump’s orbit are promoting Rep. Pat Harrigan, according to a person close to his political operation.

Asked if he would back a successor, Tillis sidestepped the question on Sunday night. "Dependent upon whether or not President Trump endorses somebody it could be an open primary," Tillis said. "He could close it out and the party could get behind it, I suspect that's what they do. I just really hope he has some discernment because obviously Mark Robinson was a bad pick."

North Carolina, a perennial battleground since Barack Obama turned it blue in 2008, has largely eluded Democrats ever since. Making the state even more tantalizing, Democrats have generally won governorships. Cooper is considered particularly formidable, winning the governorship in 2016 and 2020 — when Trump also won the state. Similarly, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein last year beat scandal-ridden GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson to succeed Cooper even as Kamala Harris lost the state.

But Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat here in nearly two decades — and Tillis ousted that Democrat, Kay Hagan, to take it back in 2014. Among the more moderate Republicans in the Senate and an increasingly rare example of a GOP lawmaker willing to break with Trump, Tillis was one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. Now his retirement is giving Democrats an even riper target.

“An open seat is a totally different ball game than a Thom Tillis seat in terms of flippability,” said a senior Democratic aide granted anonymity to speak candidly. “That will be a blue seat come 2026.”

North Carolina could become a rare bright spot for Democrats on what is otherwise a very difficult Senate map. They’re defending a trio of competitive open seats, and their only offensive opportunities going into the cycle ran headlong into formidable incumbents like Tillis and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine.

“It just shows you that the Republicans’ majority is at risk because their Big, Ugly Bill is so unpopular, not just in North Carolina but throughout the country,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement.

All eyes are now on Cooper. The person close to the former governor said Tillis’ announcement “doesn’t really change anything” about Cooper’s own calculations, arguing that whoever emerges from the Republican primary will have either voted or voiced support for the Medicaid cuts that Tillis has criticized.

“This has always been a personal decision [for Cooper],” the person said. “He’s always believed that he could win and that he gave Democrats the best chance to win. None of that has changed this afternoon.”

Tillis’ decision to head for the exit is the latest sign that the GOP faces a difficult midterm battle on multiple fronts.

The move comes less than 48 hours after reports emerged that centrist Rep. Don Bacon intends to announce his retirement Monday, opening up a swing seat in Nebraska in one of only three GOP-held districts Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election.

And Republicans are already poised to spend heavily in a bitter Senate primary in Texas between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, potentially forcing the party to divert resources from more competitive races elsewhere.

Still, the path back to Senate control — gaining four seats — remains narrow for Democrats. Even if the party flips North Carolina’s Senate seat, they would have to wrest back control of redder territory like Iowa or Ohio and unseat Collins in Maine to have any chance at a majority. And they still face expensive, competitive races to defend Senate seats in Michigan and Georgia, states Trump won in 2024, while protecting open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, too.

That has led Democrats to look further afield for a path to a majority, with some in the party staking their hopes on winning Texas’ Senate seat if Paxton, a controversial MAGA darling, becomes Republicans’ nominee. But Democrats haven’t held a Senate seat in the Lone Star State in over three decades.

Tillis spent the week issuing increasingly dire warnings to his Republican colleagues that the party could lose seats — including his own — if it continued to pursue controversial changes to Medicaid, likening the public health care program to the political albatross the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats in 2014. Those concerns drove him to take a procedural vote against the megabill Saturday evening.

Trump responded by threatening to find someone to primary Tillis, exposing the increasingly strained relationship between the senator, the White House and Senate GOP leadership as Tillis pushed back against the bill.

"With Donald Trump in the White House voting against his agenda, seems like either a decision to retire or suicidal," said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

The president on Sunday took a victory lap after the senator said he wouldn’t run again: “Great News! ‘Senator’ Thom Tillis will not be seeking reelection,” he posted on Truth Social.

Before the post Tillis said he texted Trump, "He probably needed to start looking for a replacement."

"I told him I want to help him. I hope that we get a good candidate, that I can help, and we can have a successful 2026," Tillis recounted Sunday night.

One GOP strategist, granted anonymity to describe private conversations, said Republicans were breathing a “sigh of relief” that Tillis was retiring, believing that a fresh candidate would better appeal to the voters as the incumbent butted heads with the president and showed a sagging favorability rating in polls.

Democrats argue Republicans’ support for Medicaid cuts give Cooper in particular an opening.

“He was obviously instrumental in getting Medicaid expansion here in the state and this bill will threaten it,” said Doug Wilson, a Democratic strategist who was an adviser on Kamala Harris’ campaign in North Carolina. “This gives him a lane to run on. Not only did he help implement it, it was something he has pushed for since his first term.”

Nickel is the most prominent of the Democrats to announce a campaign so far. He’s hinted at a Senate bid ever since being redistricted out of his House seat last cycle and has expressed confidence in his chances against whichever Republican candidate emerges.

“No matter which MAGA loyalist Donald Trump hand-picks to run in North Carolina, I’m the Democrat who’s ready to take them on and win. I’ve flipped a tough seat before and we’re going to do it again,” he said in a statement to POLITICO.

Still, flipping North Carolina isn’t a done deal for Democrats either.

“People forget that North Carolina Senate races are always close,” North Carolina-based Republican strategist Doug Heye said. “There hasn’t been a double-digit Senate win since 1974.”

Rachael Bade, Jordain Carney, Meredith Lee Hill, Calen Razor and Andrew Howard contributed to this report.