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Texas Republicans’ messy Senate primary is giving Democrats hope that they could finally have an opening to wedge into higher office in the red state — for real this time.
But a potential pileup of candidates as the party sees renewed interest in the race could spoil their chances of finally flipping the Lone Star State.
Attorney General Ken Paxton, who endured multiple scandals while in office, is leading in the polls against longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn. A Paxton victory could divide Republicans and potentially even sway some to support a Democrat. Nearly two dozen Texas Democratic members of Congress, party leaders and strategists described a sense of opportunity, but were divided on the type of candidate to run.
Some argued for a progressive, others thought a more centrist candidate could gain traction, while others weren’t even sure Democrats could pull off a win. There are calls both for new blood and for a proven candidate. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) just wants a candidate who’d “sound like a Texas Democrat” and could buck national trends..
“I think this is just a great opportunity for Democrats, and we don't need to blow it,” said Veasey, who said he isn't interested in a run.
Flipping Texas is a perennial Democratic dream, but core constituencies have moved further to the right, and Democrats haven't held a Senate seat in the state since 1993. The state’s expensive media markets require fundraising prowess. That leaves the party with a crowded field of interested candidates, but none with a proven track record of winning statewide. Plenty of Democrats are skeptical they’d even win against Paxton, whose nomination isn’t guaranteed.
“I am hopeful that [Cornyn] could pull it off, because if you're going to have a Republican in Texas, why not let it be John,” said Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas).
Democrats acknowledge they’d stand little chance of unseating Cornyn, who’s been a fixture in Texas politics for decades. But Paxton, a Trump loyalist who was impeached by the Republican-held Texas House (and acquitted in the impeachment trial) and faced a federal corruption investigation, has been a polarizing figure in the Texas GOP, and, Democrats hope, an opponent they could defeat.
“Democrats are foaming at the mouth about Ken Paxton,” said Katherine Fischer, deputy executive director of Texas Majority PAC, which works to elect Democrats statewide. “We’re seeing in local elections in Texas and across the country there is already a backlash against Trump and against MAGA. Ken Paxton is about as MAGA as you can get.”
First they need to find a viable Senate candidate.
After coming up short in previous cycles, many Texas Democrats are hesitant about supporting former Reps. Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, both of whom have signaled their interest in another bid. O’Rourke, who unsuccessfully ran statewide in 2018 and 2022, has been hosting packed town halls across the state. Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by about 8.5 percentage points, has said he was “seriously considering” another run.
“Well, [Allred and O’Rourke are] both talking about it, and I hope that they will resolve that one person’s running and not all,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett.
Allred’s failed campaign has left a bad taste among some Texans, especially progressives, who believe he did not run aggressively or do enough grassroots outreach. And while O’Rourke is still a favorite son in Texas Democratic circles, many of those supporters believe he will be haunted by his position against assault rifles in a gun-loving state.
“They both tried it, and especially the last time, the margins were pretty wide,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). “And I think those are all things to consider.”
Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist, agreed: “Putting the same two guys up over and over, I don't think that's going to deliver us.”
That’s why some say it's time to try something new. Texas Democrats have talked up potential bids by state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic seminarian and frequently viral member who helped prosecute Paxton during his impeachment.
Talarico told POLITICO: “I’m having conversations about how I can best serve Texas, and that includes the Senate race. But in my training as a pastor, you learn the importance of listening and how hard it is to truly listen. With so much at stake for Texas, I’m trying to listen more than I talk right now.”
His potential candidacy is generating some interest from players who have run successful upstart campaigns. “It’s going to take a Democrat who can make the case against Washington D.C., the status quo, and the powers that to be to win a senate race in Texas,” said Andrew Mamo, a veteran of Pete Buttigieg’s presidential campaign who is informally advising Talarico. “James is one of the rare people in the party with the profile and most importantly the storytelling skills to get that done."
State Sen. Nathan Johnson, a Dallas lawyer, is in the mix but he's also eyeing a run for attorney general. Some party insiders privately worry a state lawmaker won’t bring the necessary firepower, saying they need to find a candidate with experience running statewide — or at least someone who represents Texas in Congress — due to the sheer amount of resources required to compete in the second-largest state.
Veasey and fellow Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro have both been talked up as potential candidates, though Veasey in an interview ruled out a run. A person close to Castro said he was actively looking at the race.
While Democrats across the nation believe backlash against President Donald Trump’s unpopular agenda like his DOGE cuts and trade war will help in the midterms, the Democratic dream of winning Texas — which once seemed like only a matter of time — now feels farther away.
The party’s coalition problems are on stark display in South Texas, where Latino-heavy border districts like Gonzalez’s shifted dramatically toward Trump. Gonzalez and other Democrats have been warning of their party’s need to reverse their fortunes with Latino voters.
“There is work to be done on Latino erosion," said Tory Gavito, an Austin-based Democratic strategist. "There is work to be done to make sure infrastructure is incredibly sound in places like Houston and Dallas and San Antonio and South Texas.”
Progressive Democrats are eager to back a candidate who runs to the left of Allred, based on their belief that working-class voters can be brought back to the party with a populist economic message.
“We've got to have somebody run who's going to be willing to go travel the state, and connect with a diverse set of working-class voters,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas). “In Texas, people are looking for somebody that's authentic and real, willing to tell it like it is, that's going to energize our base, but then bring a lot of disaffected voters back to the polls.”
Allred is widely seen by Texas Democrats as the preferred candidate of Washington, and some said they’re tired of out-of-state consultants in their backyard.
“We don't want people from D.C. telling Texans what to do,” said Nancy Thompson, a Democratic activist and founder of Mothers Against Greg Abbott.
A strong contingent of the party, however, believes that running too far to the left would blow up their chances in what remains a socially conservative state.
“You have to have real candidates that are willing to sound like everyday Texans," said Veasey. "Being part of the national team will get your ass killed.”
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